The Muafakat Nasional alliance between Barisan Nasional (BN) and PAS could form the next federal government with a majority of 116 seats in Parliament. This projection is based on expected vote swings in marginal seats currently held by Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Bersatu (PN), where many Malay voters may shift support to UMNO or PAS.
Basis of the Projection and Calculation Method
This data and seat-by-seat calculation is derived from the results of the 15th General Election (GE15) in 2022, assuming a straight 1-on-1 contest under a revived Muafakat Nasional alliance (no three-cornered fights between UMNO/BN and PAS).
Example: Lembah Pantai (currently held by Fahmi Fadzil of PKR)
- In GE15: Fahmi Fadzil (PH-PKR) won with 35,359 votes.
- UMNO (BN) came second with 21,447 votes.
- PAS (PN) came third with 19,098 votes.
In a Muafakat Nasional 1-on-1 scenario: PAS’s 19,098 votes would transfer/add to UMNO’s candidate, giving UMNO a combined 40,545 votes – beating PKR’s 35,359 by a majority of 5,186 votes. Thus, Lembah Pantai swings to UMNO.
For the rest of the seats listed, you can apply the same formula:
- Identify the GE15 votes for PH/Bersatu winner vs. UMNO/BN and PAS/PN candidates.
- Combine UMNO + PAS votes and compare to the winner’s tally.
- Account for potential Malay voter consolidation and Bersatu seats (many won on PAS grassroots support in PN).
Seats currently held by Bersatu are particularly vulnerable, as much of their support came from PAS voters and machinery under the Perikatan Nasional banner.
Why Muafakat Nasional is a Deadly Combination:
- UMNO provides strong leadership, institutional experience, and resources.
- PAS supplies powerful grassroots networks, election machinery, and a loyal voter base.
- This alliance stands strong on Peninsular Malaysia alone and does not rely on any pacts with Borneo-based parties (GPS, GRS, etc.) to form the federal government.
Projected Seat Distribution After the Next General Election:
- PAS: Currently 43 seats → Gains at least 9 more → 52 seats
- UMNO: Currently 26 seats (after deducting 7 Sabah seats, assuming total loss, leaving 19) → Adds 33 new seats → 55 seats
- MCA: Currently 2 seats → Adds 5 → 7 seats
- MIC: Currently 1 seat → Adds 1 → 2 seats
Total for BN + PAS (Muafakat Nasional): 116 seats – sufficient for a simple majority (112 out of 222 parliamentary seats).
Meanwhile, PH and Bersatu face significant losses:
- PKR: Currently 31 → Loses 16 → 15 seats
- Amanah: Currently 8 → Loses 5 → 3 seats
- DAP: Currently 40 → Loses 4 in Peninsular Malaysia (excluding Sabah and Sarawak) → 36 seats
- Bersatu: Currently 30 → Loses at least 18 → 12 seats
At the state level:
- PAS retains control of 4 states: Perlis, Terengganu, Kelantan, Kedah.
- UMNO takes over: Negeri Sembilan, Perak, Pahang, Melaka, Johor.
Muafakat Nasional conquers 9 states in total.
List of Potential Seat Swings (Currently Held by Bersatu or PH, Expected to Fall to BN or PAS):
- Lembah Pantai (PKR) → UMNO
- Setiawangsa (PKR) → UMNO
- Bandar Tun Razak (PKR) → UMNO
- Putrajaya (Bersatu) → UMNO
- Labuan (Bersatu) → UMNO
- Langkawi (Bersatu) → UMNO
- Kubang Pasu (Bersatu) → PAS
- Sungai Petani (PKR) → PAS
- Padang Serai (Bersatu) → PAS
- Kulim Bandar Baru (Bersatu) → PAS
- Machang (Bersatu) → PAS
- Tasek Gelugor (Bersatu) → PAS
- Balik Pulau (PKR) → UMNO
- Sabak Bernam (Bersatu) → UMNO
- Sungai Besar (Bersatu) → UMNO
- Tanjong Karang (Bersatu) → UMNO
- Kuala Selangor (Amanah) → UMNO
- Gombak (PKR) → UMNO
- Hulu Langat (Amanah) → UMNO
- Sungai Buloh (PKR) → UMNO
- Shah Alam (Amanah) → UMNO
- Sepang (Amanah) → UMNO
- Segamat (PKR) → UMNO
- Sekijang (PKR) → UMNO
- Labis (DAP) → BN (MCA)
- Ledang (PKR) → UMNO
- Muar (MUDA) → UMNO
- Sri Gading (Amanah) → UMNO
- Batu Pahat (PKR) → PAS
- Mersing (Bersatu) → UMNO
- Tebrau (DAP) → BN (MCA)
- Pasir Gudang (PKR) → PAS
- Masjid Tanah (Bersatu) → UMNO
- Alor Gajah (Amanah) → UMNO
- Hang Tuah Jaya (PKR) → UMNO
- Raub (DAP) → BN (MCA)
- Bentong (DAP) → BN (MCA)
- Rompin (Bersatu) → UMNO
- Gerik (Bersatu) → UMNO
- Bukit Gantang (Bersatu) → UMNO
- Padang Rengas (Bersatu) → UMNO
- Sungai Siput (PKR) → BN (MIC)
- Tambun (PKR) → PAS
- Kuala Kangsar (Bersatu) → UMNO
- Lumut (Bersatu) → UMNO
- Tanjong Malim (PKR) → BN (MCA)
Important Notes on the Strength of This Projection
- This calculation assumes PH at full strength: 97% of Chinese voters and 86% of Indian voters remain solidly behind PH, along with Rafizi Ramli’s progressive supporters still fully intact.
- Even under these optimal conditions for PH (pre-weakening), the consolidated wave toward Muafakat Nasional proves unstoppable.
- In reality, PH is already badly weakened following the recent Sabah state election outcomes and ongoing internal issues—making the projected collapse even more likely.
- Even at PH’s peak strength, this massive and deadly wave cannot be stopped. Be careful what you celebrate.
Figures like Yeo Bee Yin and Tony Pua can continue their celebrations if they wish. Let’s see how long your arrogance allows that when the Muafakat Nasional alliance returns. You started the fire—so prepare for the consequences.
