Japan and the United Kingdom slipped into technical recessions (at least two successive quarters of GDP contraction) during the September-December quarter of 2023. Recessions in these two countries made headlines due to their large economies. However, this is only the tip of the iceberg. The fear of technical recession looms over several parts of the world.
FOUR COUNTRIES UNDER TECHNICAL RECESSION SO FAR
Along with the UK and Japan, Ireland and Finland also went into technical recessions in the fourth quarter. Ireland registered a quarter-on-quarter GDP contraction of 0.7 per cent and 1.9 per cent in Q3 and Q4 respectively. On the other hand, Finland’s GDP shrank by 0.4 per cent and 0.9 per cent in the same periods.
MANY COUNTRIES AT RISK OF SLIPPING INTO RECESSION IN Q4
With the fourth quarter GDP results of several countries yet to be released, one can’t be certain if the above-mentioned four countries alone will face recession. At least 14 countries witnessed a shrinking GDP during the July-September quarter. The 10 other countries — Denmark, Luxembourg, Moldova, Estonia, Ecuador, Bahrain, Iceland, South Africa, Canada, and New Zealand — are still at risk of slipping into recession. Denmark, Luxembourg, Moldova, and Estonia were already in recession by the third quarter.
Malaysia’s economy grew slower than expected in the fourth quarter of 2023 as exports remained subdued, the central bank said on Friday, though it expects growth to improve this year on the back of a recovery in external demand.
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) said the 3% year-on-year growth in gross domestic product during the October-December period was driven by improving labor market conditions and easing cost pressures.
“Growth in 2024 will be driven by resilient domestic expenditure and improvement in external demand,” the central bank said in a statement.
The fourth quarter reading was below advanced estimates released on Jan. 19 by the Statistics Department and analysts’ forecast in a Reuters poll of a 3.4% expansion.
It was also softer than the 3.3% expansion in the previous quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis, Malaysia’s economy contracted 2.1%, compared to a 2.6% rise in the third quarter.
Full-year 2023 economic growth was 3.7%, below the government’s projection for a 3.8% expansion and a sharp drop from a 22-year high of 8.7% in 2022.
The Coverage Malaysia
