The Hidden Truth PAS Ahmad Fadhli Won’t Tell: UMNO Gains Just 10 Seats with PN, But Hides 20 with PH

In a recent statement, PAS Information Chief Ahmad Fadhli Shaari touted a supposed boon for UMNO if it ditches its current alliance with Pakatan Harapan (PH) and jumps ship to Perikatan Nasional (PN). He claims, based on a “simple calculation” from GE15 results, that combining UMNO and PN votes could hand Barisan Nasional (BN) a “significant advantage” in marginal PH-held seats.

The Seats PAS Doesn’t Want UMNO to See: 20 More with PH

UMNO With PN = 36 Seats ( 10 Seats More )

UMNO With PH = 46 Seats ( 20 Seats More )

Specifically, Fadhli asserts that UMNO, which secured just 26 parliamentary seats in GE15, could add at least 10 more by aligning with PN, listing examples like Lembah Pantai, Sungai Buloh, Hulu Langat, Sekijang, Ledang, Sri Gading, Alor Gajah, Hang Tuah Jaya, and Johor Bahru.

This pitch sounds enticing on the surface—a quick seat boost for a struggling UMNO. But Fadhli’s narrative is a masterclass in selective storytelling, conveniently omitting the harsh realities that would leave UMNO humiliated, weakened, and playing third fiddle in its own supposed revival.

What Fadhli hides is the bigger picture: in this hypothetical UMNO-PN merger, UMNO wouldn’t emerge as a powerhouse—it would become the smallest political force in the alliance. Let’s break down the math he avoids. UMNO’s projected gain of 10 seats would bump them from 26 to 36.

But that’s before accounting for potential losses in Sabah, where UMNO holds 7 vulnerable seats that could flip away in such a realignment, dropping them to a pitiful 29. Meanwhile, PAS would hold steady at 43 seats, and Bersatu—UMNO’s arch-rival—would surge from around 30 to 45 seats, overtaking everyone as the dominant Malay party.

This isn’t a partnership; it’s a setup where UMNO’s gains are marginal at best, while PN’s core players—especially Bersatu—reap the real rewards. Bersatu would solidify its position as the top Malay force with 45 seats, edging out PAS’s 43 and dwarfing UMNO’s 29-36. How’s that for “significant advantage”? It’s more like significant subordination.

This alliance wouldn’t just dilute UMNO’s historical dominance—it would actively empower their mortal enemies. Bersatu, born from a splinter of UMNO itself, has a track record of undermining and eroding UMNO’s base. History could repeat: once Bersatu gains this strength, they’d likely work to weaken and ultimately replace UMNO as the de facto Malay political party in Malaysia. UMNO can kiss any dreams of reclaiming the Prime Minister’s post goodbye; in this coalition, they’d be lucky to get a seat at the table, let alone lead it. Fadhli’s proposal isn’t about reviving UMNO—it’s about humiliating them into irrelevance while bolstering PAS and Bersatu.

But the real sleight of hand is what Fadhli buries entirely: the far superior outcomes if UMNO sticks with PH. Applying the same mathematical logic to GE15 results, an UMNO-PH alliance could flip PN-held seats where either BN (UMNO) or PH came in a close second. In this scenario, the second-place party contests and wins, positioning UMNO as the largest party in Parliament with massive gains. UMNO alone could add at least 20 seats, rocketing from 26 to 46—outpacing DAP’s 42 and PKR’s 41. PN, meanwhile, would be the biggest loser, hemorrhaging at least 36 seats from its current 74, shrinking to a shadow of its former self.

Here’s a breakdown of the potential seat flips in an UMNO-PH strengthened coalition:

• Seats flipping to UMNO (20 seats, mostly where UMNO was a clear second to PN): Gua Musang, Kepala Batas, Tasek Gelugor, Sabak Bernam, Tanjong Karang, Mersing, Masjid Tanah, Jasin, Jerantut, Maran, Kuala Krau, Rompin, Gerik, Bukit Gantang, Padang Rengas, Kuala Kangsar, Parit, Pasir Salak, Lumut, Kangar.
• Seats flipping to PKR (10 seats): Kulim Bandar Baru, Permatang Pauh, Sungai Besar, Hulu Selangor, Kapar, Kuala Langat, Pagoh, Tangga Batu, Indera Mahkota, Kuantan.
• Seats flipping to Amanah (2 seats): Temerloh, Parit Buntar.

This isn’t speculation—it’s the logical extension of Fadhli’s own “simple calculations,” but applied evenly across alliances. UMNO would not only gain double the seats (20 vs. 10) but also cement itself as the premier Malay party in a dominant coalition, weakening PN in the process.

So why does Fadhli only trumpet the meager 10-seat upside with PN while sweeping the 20-seat bonanza with PH under the rug? And why ignore how joining PN would make UMNO the runt of the litter, benefiting PAS and Bersatu far more? The answer is obvious: it’s partisan spin designed to lure UMNO into a trap that serves PN’s interests, not UMNO’s. Fadhli’s omission isn’t an oversight—it’s a calculated deception to prop up his own coalition at UMNO’s expense. If UMNO falls for this, they’ll deserve the diminishment that follows. Stay with PH, reclaim your dominance, and leave the green wave to crash on its own shores.